Goldman Sachs has revised its projection for China’s 2024 economic growth, raising the country’s GDP forecast to 4.9%, signaling renewed confidence in Beijing’s economic recovery efforts. The investment bank’s upward revision stems from several factors, including stronger-than-expected data on industrial output and increased consumer spending, coupled with the effects of more targeted policy support. These adjustments suggest that Chinese authorities are focusing on stabilizing the economy through both fiscal measures and monetary easing.
China’s economic performance in 2023 faced significant hurdles, particularly due to sluggish consumer demand following the lifting of strict pandemic-related restrictions, and a property sector in turmoil. However, signs of stabilization have emerged, leading global financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, to reassess their outlook on the world’s second-largest economy.
The Chinese government’s approach to managing the country’s growth has evolved, reflecting a shift from aggressive pandemic-era fiscal policies toward more measured economic interventions. Goldman Sachs noted that China’s leadership has implemented strategies aimed at striking a balance between economic stimulus and long-term sustainability. This shift has helped calm investor concerns about structural issues, particularly in real estate, while stimulating sectors such as manufacturing and technology.
The revised forecast aligns with other optimistic assessments, suggesting that China is poised to achieve moderate yet sustainable growth in 2024. Goldman Sachs’ economists highlighted that China’s renewed focus on infrastructure spending, along with a gradual recovery in the property market, are likely to support the nation’s GDP growth trajectory. Additionally, the bank predicts that consumer confidence will continue to rebound, boosted by government initiatives aimed at alleviating unemployment and expanding credit availability.
Analysts also emphasize the role of China’s exports, which have benefitted from the relative strength of global demand, particularly in sectors such as electronics and machinery. While geopolitical tensions, including trade relations with the U.S., remain a potential risk, the bank noted that China’s diverse manufacturing base and strategic partnerships with emerging markets will continue to bolster its economic resilience.
However, challenges persist, particularly within the property sector. Although authorities have taken steps to stabilize the real estate market, the sector remains fragile due to high levels of debt among property developers and continued concerns about housing affordability. Goldman Sachs pointed out that resolving these issues will be critical to maintaining the momentum of China’s broader economic recovery.